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Notes On Marin Software’s (MRIN) Undeserved Two Day Rally

It is a digitial advertising marketing platform. Almost all of these types of companies have not done well: Rocketfuel, RUBI, YuMe, Tremor Video (now TLRA) and many more. They are cronic money losers.

– There are no details about how much money they are getting from Google. It could be a miniscule amount.

– Their customers already go through Google adwords, so it makes sense that Google should give them a piece of the revenue since they’re guiding customers there. This shouldn’t be a big deal, it’s standard.

The word “revenue” sounds like a lot since Google makes a lot of revenue, but it’s more like a “referral fee”.

– They said they had made this deal with Google back in October 1, 2018. Why wait 2.5 months to report it? It’s likely they did it strategically to boost the stock in order to raise funds off this move.

– Q4 projected Non-GAAP loss of $2.4M is still a loss.  And it excludes many things from this SEC filing:

-Non-GAAP loss from operations excludes the effects of stock-based compensation, amortization of internally developed software, intangible assets and deferred costs to obtain and fulfill contracts, impairment of goodwill and long-lived assets, capitalization of internally developed software, deferral of costs to obtain and fulfill contracts and non-recurring costs associated with restructurings.

– Company burned $2.5M in cash last quarter and had a $21M loss. Burned $6M in Q218. Reported $13.4M in cash for Q318. Considering Non-GAAP loss is $2.4M, excluding all those other costs, we can conservatively predict they’ve burned around $5M this quarter. That will leave them with $8M by the end of the year. That’s only about 2 quarters left of cash.